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### Weekly Report -12/01/14

### 13

#### Jan

#### 2014

Started the week by doing a summary of the Smokeping data that Shane and I have collected last year. This included grouping the streams based on average means (i.e. < 5, < 30, < 100, > 100) and summing up the number of FPs and significant/insignificant/unclassified events for the whole stream and also on a per detector basis. Using these numbers, I was able to find out accurate probability values for each detector. This also made it easy to see exactly where we needed more data, e.g. only having 5 Mode events throughout all the streams with an avg mean of < 5.

Then, I modified my eventing python script to use different probabilities based on the detector that fired and the average mean of the stream at that time. These probability values will still need to be updated later on since the sample size is too small for some of the detectors. However, this is tricky since some detectors (especially Mode) only fire occasionally when the mode of the time series has changed considerably, so getting a big enough sample size is tricky.

Spent some time looking over Bayes Theorem, which I plan on using as a comparison of different fusion methods.